Does anyone remember “American carnage”? In his 2017 inaugural address Donald Trump portrayed a collapsing society, emphasising in particular the “crime and gangs and drugs” destroying America’s cities.
It was a peculiar and disturbing speech, in part because it bore no relationship to reality. Then as now, America had many problems. But runaway urban crime wasn’t one of them. In fact, Trump chose to proclaim urban carnage after a remarkable generation-long run of plunging crime in our major cities. New York, for example, had only 335 murders in 2016, down from 2262 in 1990.
So what was that about?
At the time, I thought it was mostly about sadism. Trump clearly loves punishing people, so he was eager to portray a nation full of people who needed punishing. And it remains true, as Adam Serwer pointed out back in 2018, that for Trump and many of his supporters cruelty is a goal in itself, that they rejoice in the suffering of those they hate and fear.
But the events unfolding in Los Angeles as you read this and, I fear, the events likely to unfold across much of America soon, quite possibly this weekend, suggest that the motivations of Trump and his cronies go deeper than mere (mere!) sadism. They want to use false claims of chaos to justify a power grab that, if successful, would mark the end of the American experiment.
As I assume everyone knows by now, last Friday heavily armed — and masked — Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents began raiding workplaces in and around Los Angeles, seeking to arrest people they claimed were illegal immigrants. Crowds quickly gathered to protest. After all, ICE wasn’t rounding up members of violent gangs. It was scooping up ordinary people doing ordinary jobs, many of whom had friends and relatives in the neighbourhood.
The protests were relatively peaceful, although there were some scuffles, objects thrown and vandalism. Los Angeles has experienced real riots in the past. This didn’t even come close. But ICE and some other law enforcement personnel responded with heavy application of force — not lethal weapons, at least not yet, but lots of tear gas, rubber bullets, and so on.
Until ICE moved in Los Angeles was, in fact, remarkably peaceful. Like other major American cities, LA experienced a significant but not huge crime wave in the aftermath of Covid but has since seen that wave more than completely recede:
Source: Real Time Crime Index.
Los Angeles right now is probably as safe as it has ever been.
But if you read Trump, which you should to get past the sanewashing, the City of Angels sounds like a scene from Fallout:
Source: Truth Social
And Trump’s homeland secretary Kristi Noem has called LA a “city of criminals.”
As a New Yorker, I’m accustomed to seeing my quite liveable city portrayed as a hellscape. Still, there are thirteen million people living in Greater Los Angeles who can testify that it has not, in fact, been invaded and occupied, let alone taken over by insurrectionist mobs.
Oh, and let’s not forget that an actual insurrectionist mob tried to overturn the 2020 election — and Trump has pardoned its members.
But no matter. Trump wanted an excuse to mobilise the National Guard, even though the governor of California not only didn’t request it, but has sued Trump to demand that he rescind the order.
When did a president last federalise the Guard against a governor’s wishes? Sixty years ago, when Lyndon Johnson mobilised the Alabama National Guard against the wishes of George Wallace, so that it could protect civil rights marchers.
I’m still seeing some news analyses portraying what’s happening as a confrontation over immigration. And there are definitely people in the administration, led by Stephen Miller, who simply hate immigrants — legal or not, it doesn’t much matter. White South Africans seem to be the only exception.
But this looks bigger even than a play by an administration that has been finding, to its horror, that mass deportation is a lot harder than it sounds — especially if you make any effort at all to follow due process. What it looks like is an attempt to create confrontations that can be used to impose something that, for practical purposes, amounts to martial law.
And if that’s what it’s really about, what’s happening in Los Angeles is just the beginning.
Most immediately, what is going to happen this Saturday? The government is going to hold a costly military parade in Washington, even though we aren’t celebrating any recent victories I’m aware of. This is the kind of thing one expects to see in Red Square, not the capital of a democracy. And guess what: the parade will also fall on Donald Trump’s birthday.
Many pro-democracy groups have teamed up to organise protests against the parade. There will be “No Kings Day” demonstrations all across the country. I don’t know whether there will be any violent incidents. But I’m quite sure that Trump and his allies will claim that violent incidents are happening and seek excuses to use force against the protestors.
So it’s important to understand what is happening here. Trump isn’t reacting to any real threat of disorder in California. And while anti-immigrant bigotry is certainly an important factor, it’s not the whole story.
No, this is all about finding excuses to use force against Trump’s critics and opponents and justify an anti-democratic power grab. •
This article first appeared in Paul Krugman’s Substack newsletter.
