With just a month to go to the midterm elections, Americans are already voting. Although the pace of opinion polling has picked up, the broad picture hasn’t changed since I last reported: Republicans will retain the House and are favoured to win a series of tight Senate contests, but the battle is not yet over for the Democrats.
The Washington Post Election Lab gives the Republicans a greater than 99 per cent chance of retaining the House of Representatives and an 84 per cent chance of taking control of the Senate. But the FiveThirtyEight blog, which uses a forecasting model that proved highly accurate in the last presidential election, sees the Senate result quite differently, with the Republicans’ chances of victory at 57.7 per cent.
With pollsters reporting that fewer people are responding to polling this year, however, the pre-election surveys are seen as less predictive of election-day margins. Without a presidential race to bring voters to the polls, turnout is always difficult to predict in midterm elections – and this year the crucial races are in states like Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana, where tight races aren’t usual and pollsters don’t have a lot of experience.
A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg poll highlights why getting voters to the polling booths will be critical, especially for the Democrats. It found that registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress by 46–42. But while 75 per cent of Republican voters see this election as important, only 57 per cent of Democrats do. Younger voters, who are more likely to vote Democratic, are highly disengaged, with only 20 per cent of voters under thirty-five taking a keen interest in this election.
This midterm drop-off reflects the fact that voters aren’t persuaded that the stakes are high in this election. When a poll in late September asked respondents which issues they considered important, the economy was nominated by 19 per cent, terrorism and national security by 12 per cent, healthcare by 5 per cent, and immigration and border security by 8 per cent. Social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage ranked even lower. These are not the kind of numbers that drive voters to the polls.
More than six years after the global financial crisis, the US economy is now stronger than at any time since Barack Obama took office. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9 per cent and over ten million jobs have been added. But many of these new jobs don’t pay well and overall wage growth has been stagnant for two decades, so many Americans still feel considerable economic anxiety.
The president has recently renewed his call for a higher federal minimum wage and for protection of women’s right to equal pay. This fits into a specific election strategy: in 2012, 53 per cent of all voters were women and 55 per cent of them voted for Barack Obama. According to the Center for American Women and Politics, 63.7 per cent of eligible women took the time to vote that year, versus 59.8 per cent of eligible men.
Many observers expected healthcare reform, Obama’s signature domestic policy initiative, to be a central issue in this year’s campaigns. But although the majority of voters routinely say they don’t support the law, it is less and less a live issue. The reality is that many are benefiting from the reforms and there is little they want to see rolled back. Voting to repeal Obamacare has become a sad catchcry of Republican law-makers rather than a driver of voter turnout.
About two-thirds of likely voters call illegal immigration a serious problem, although just 8 per cent name it as the top issue facing the nation. Only 35 per cent say they approve of Obama’s handling of the issue, but voters generally support the provision of a legal way for illegal immigrants already in the United States to become citizens. This will be a key issue for Hispanic voters, who will overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats.
The big issue that has catapulted to the centre of the political stage is the international action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Polls last month showed Americans were hawkish about an active US role, with only 13 per cent saying action wasn’t in the national interest. Although concerns about Obama’s apparent lack of strategy initially sent confidence in his oversight of foreign policy into a tailspin, even among his core supporters, he has since been able to claim back authority. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that 62 per cent of voters support his decision to take action; and Pew polling found rare bipartisan support, with majorities of both Republicans (64 per cent) and Democrats (60 per cent) approving of the plan to use airstrikes against ISIS.
What is not clear is whether, as operations continue, Americans will continue to rally around the flag against a threat that has seen Americans beheaded but no engagement on American soil, and whether this will affect the way they vote in November.
As Washington Post columnist Dan Balz wrote last week, this is an election very much about how people view President Obama. Balz quoted academic Doug Rivers, who observed that “there is no overriding issue other than that Republicans don’t like Obama and Democrats are lukewarm about Obama.” A Gallup Poll last week indicates how this will play out: 58 per cent of Republicans will use their vote to send a message of opposition to Obama, while just 38 per cent of Democrats will use their vote to send a message of support.
Little wonder then that while Obama has been energetically fundraising, he has not been campaigning publicly with Democrat candidates. Michelle Obama, however, is using her popularity and influence to help elect Democratic candidates and give her husband a fighting chance of completing his policy agenda. Hillary Clinton will reportedly also hit the campaign trail this month to stump for a number of women candidates.
Fundraising is key, as 2014 could be the most expensive midterm elections ever. Not surprisingly, the Democrats are investing heavily in voter turnout, with huge efforts, in states like Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina, to register new voters, publicise absentee- and early-voting options and get supporters to the polls on election day.
In terms of declared fundraising, Democrats are leading. But funding for both parties is increasingly coming from sources that don’t have to disclose their spending. For Democrats, the so-called Super PACs, environmental organisations and abortion rights groups have spent more than $4.8 million on key Senate races. The Democrats have narrowed the traditional financial gap with Republicans, who are struggling to manage the challenges to the established party from groups aligned with the Tea Party.
The major concern for Republican strategists is that, despite Obama’s mediocre approval ratings and the high number of Senate races taking place in reliably Republican states, this year doesn’t look like an easy victory. The problem is that congressional Republicans have even worse approval ratings than the president. A Washington Post/ABC poll reported last week that 72 per cent of Americans say they disapprove of Republicans in Congress –18 points worse than the president and 11 points worse than congressional Democrats.
On the other hand, the Democrats face the “midterm penalty,” which reliably decrees that the president’s party only ever gains seats in the most extraordinary circumstances, such as the great Depression (1934), a failed impeachment effort (1998) or a terrorist attack (2002). With the outcome of up to eleven Senate seats in doubt, the results on 4 November are still anybody’s guess. •
