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polls
National affairs
Those damned, elusive Newspoll boosts
Peter Brent
24 April 2017
A lot happened in the past fortnight. But not much happened in Newspoll
National affairs
The Coalition’s deck-chair question
Peter Brent
31 March 2017
Who will lead the government to near-certain defeat at the next federal election?
National affairs
Mark McGowan’s – and Malcolm Turnbull’s – opportunity to seize the day
Tim Colebatch
13 March 2017
WA Labor should immediately tackle the upper house gerrymander – and the federal Coalition needs to use the budget to get back on track
National affairs
A former leader’s advice: in a crisis, have the courage to break with the past
Tim Colebatch
3 March 2017
By forcing Malcolm Turnbull to behave like Tony Abbott, the Nationals have gravely damaged the government. But Black Jack McEwen showed how that can change
National affairs
NSW politics claims another victim
Norman Abjorensen
19 January 2017
A remarkable drop in polling figures preceded Mike Baird’s resignation announcement today
International
Trump’s ragged army
Peter Brent
27 October 2016
Since he won the nomination, Donald Trump has relied on party loyalty rather than working-class defections
From the archive
Mitchell, Murdoch and me
Peter Brent
13 October 2016
A critic-turned-employee of the
Australian
recalls the highs and lows of dealing with Chris Mitchell, editor-in-chief
National affairs
Newspoll and the new reality of post-election polling
Peter Brent
30 August 2016
The global financial crisis continues to make governing difficult, writes
Peter Brent
. No wonder this week’s poll figures aren’t so good for the Coalition
Essays & reportage
Polls and the pendulum
Murray Goot
17 June 2016
It’s wise to take care in interpreting the two-party-preferred poll figures and the 2016 electoral pendulum, writes
Murray Goot
National affairs
Newspoll’s leadership problem
Peter Brent
23 May 2016
Shifts in approval ratings always set commentators buzzing, writes
Peter Brent
. What they mean is another thing altogether
National affairs
Election 2016: The realists, the rationalists and the romantics
Paul Rodan
4 May 2016
We don’t know for certain why people vote the way they do, writes
Paul Rodan
. But three theories give us glimpses
National affairs
The tyranny of the present
Peter Brent
20 April 2016
In the battle to write history as it unfolds, too much notice is being taken of shifts in the polls, writes
Peter Brent
National affairs
There’s more than one way of thinking big
Peter Brent
13 April 2016
Kevin Rudd’s fate is a cautionary tale for an announcement-prone Malcolm Turnbull, writes
Peter Brent
National affairs
Hanging off Newspoll
Peter Brent
5 April 2016
A bad Newspoll result suggests that Malcolm Turnbull has provoked the economic anxieties of the electorate, says
Peter Brent
. The question is: why?
National affairs
Fifty–fifty vision: the pollsters’ preference problem
Peter Brent
22 February 2016
Ipsos and Newspoll have brought bad news for the government, writes
Peter Brent
. But both parties would be wise to stay calm
National affairs
Fighting old battles, losing the war
Peter Browne
14 July 2015
The Coalition has been fighting on the same terrain for nearly two years, writes
Peter Browne
, but it hasn’t shaken Labor’s lead in the polls
National affairs
Why Bill Shorten and Labor can afford to ignore Rupert Murdoch
Rodney Tiffen
23 June 2015
With declining reach and influence, the Murdoch empire can no longer determine election results, writes
Rodney Tiffen
National affairs
How gay marriage fell victim to Labor’s Stockholm Syndrome
Peter Brent
25 May 2015
A referendum on same-sex marriage would be a bad idea, writes
Peter Brent
. But the fact that the issue has got to this point says a lot about the Labor Party
Podcasts
Coalition still ahead in New South Wales, still behind in Canberra
Peter Clarke
23 March 2015
Down to the wire? In this fifteen-minute podcast,
Peter Clarke
talks to psephologist
Peter Brent
about this Saturday’s NSW election and the federal…
National affairs
Polls and preferences: the new challenge for election watchers
Tim Colebatch
24 February 2015
Elections in Victoria and Queensland have caught the pollsters wrong-footed, writes
Tim Colebatch
. Are unexpected preference flows making Australian elections harder to predict?
National affairs
Queensland: why the pollsters (and most pundits) were wrong
Peter Brent
5 February 2015
State-specific factors are part of the story, writes
Peter Brent
. But there's also a longer-term pattern
National affairs
If an election had been held on the weekend…
Peter Brent
7 August 2014
What happens when you add a hypothetical to a hypothetical?
Peter Brent
casts a sceptical eye over the polling industry
National affairs
Dancing in the dark
Peter Brent
3 July 2014
Both the major parties have made a habit of misinterpreting the polls on climate change. The latest results shouldn’t provide any comfort to the Coalition
Essays & reportage
The war the bloggers won
Greg Jericho
23 August 2013
Political bloggers brought a new rigour to interpreting the polls
National affairs
Israel and the Palestinians: public opinion and public policy
Murray Goot
22 February 2012
The evidence on Australian attitudes is much less clear than protagonists argue, writes
Murray Goot
, and the implications for public policy are far from straightforward
National affairs
The year Australian politics turned Green
Scott Steel
24 March 2011
Scott Steel
on some overlooked polling results
National affairs
Polls, elections and Australian political history: a primer
Rodney Tiffen
6 August 2010
As Australian political records tumble,
Rodney Tiffen
looks at the pitfalls of poll-watching and the lessons of post-war Australian elections
National affairs
A scare campaign that’s bound to fail
Peter Brent
15 October 2009
Oppositions can campaign on grievance, and governments can campaign on fear – it doesn’t work the other way round, writes
Peter Brent
National affairs
Safety in incumbency
Peter Brent
20 August 2009
New polling confirms that being in charge has a powerful influence on voter perceptions, writes
Peter Brent
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