National affairs
27 May 2025
A key factor in Labor’s election win was forgotten once the postmortems began
National affairs
5 May 2025
The signs were there but the size of the swings still came as a shock
National affairs
3 May 2025
With the final polls published, what do we and don’t we know?
National affairs
1 May 2025
Beware of claims that supporters of small right-wing parties will overwhelmingly preference the Coalition
National affairs
24 April 2025
Early voting, preference dealing, overinterpreted polls and an underwhelming debate: notes from another week of campaigning
National affairs
9 April 2025
Pollsters are giving Labor a winning edge, but the government has reasons to be cautious
National affairs
25 March 2025
Taswegians tend to go their own way at national elections, and that can matter when the results are close
National affairs
18 February 2025
Newspoll is changing the way it estimates how voters will direct their preferences
National affairs
7 February 2025
History suggests Labor’s state election loss in the Sunshine State last October might — just might — work in Anthony Albanese’s favour
National affairs
16 January 2025
But not necessarily in the way pundits think they do
National affairs
12 December 2024
The signs aren’t great for Labor, but the Coalition has its vulnerabilities too — and the election is still months away
International
18 November 2024
With the results near-final, what do we now know about the shifting preferences of American voters?
International
5 November 2024
After two presidential misfires in a row, the polls are under intense scrutiny ahead of tomorrow’s vote
National affairs
24 September 2024
Bob Hawke’s old seat is among the Greens’ best prospects, but the redistribution isn’t quite the gift it looks
National affairs
28 August 2024
The opposition leader has an electorally ineffective obsession
National affairs
10 August 2024
How many independents and small party MPs can we expect in the House of Representatives after the next election?
International
18 July 2024
It’s still a long time till polling day in America
National affairs
13 July 2024
Glenn Druery’s days are over, but Labor will still be worried about key Western Sydney seats
National affairs
24 June 2024
Peter Dutton isn’t the first opposition leader to opt for a big-target strategy. The precedents aren’t encouraging
National affairs
31 May 2024
One of Australia’s pollsters got very close to the actual result in 2022. Can they do it again?
National affairs
17 May 2024
All eyes will be on the next round of opinion polls. But it’s the ones that come later that count
National affairs
3 May 2024
The job of Liberal leader once swung from the party’s left to its right. But a lot has changed in recent years
National affairs
1 March 2024
It’s the interpretation rather than the result that will have real-world effects
National affairs
22 February 2024
It depends on how you ask the question
National affairs
4 December 2023
A panicky leader will only make matters worse for the government
National affairs
30 November 2023
With the next election still at least a year away, is the Coalition on the right kind of roll?
National affairs
6 November 2023
Railing against the elites, the Australian’s editor-at-large has missed real messages in the Voice vote
National affairs
16 October 2023
Despite the Yes campaign’s best efforts, Saturday’s vote followed the referendum playbook
National affairs
13 October 2023
Different audiences will be watching for different messages during Saturday night’s referendum count
National affairs
29 September 2023
History shows that the merits of the question are secondary considerations in any referendum vote