National affairs
5 May 2025
The pollsters tipped the win but not its size. So why did they toe the same line?
National affairs
5 May 2025
The signs were there but the size of the swings still came as a shock
National affairs
3 May 2025
With the final polls published, what do we and don’t we know?
National affairs
1 May 2025
Beware of claims that supporters of small right-wing parties will overwhelmingly preference the Coalition
National affairs
24 April 2025
Early voting, preference dealing, overinterpreted polls and an underwhelming debate: notes from another week of campaigning
National affairs
22 April 2025
Some polls are suggesting it will — but what distinguishes those polls from the ones that aren’t?
Essays & reportage
14 April 2025
Does the national two-party vote tell us whether Labor will finish with the most MPs, or will it come down to 150 seat-by-seat swings?
National affairs
9 April 2025
Pollsters are giving Labor a winning edge, but the government has reasons to be cautious
National affairs
10 March 2025
… winning without defeating any teals or Greens
National affairs
10 March 2025
How reliable is the exotic new breed of seat-by-seat political polls?
Other Voices
26 February 2025
Trump’s historically bad first month of polls should terrify Republicans
National affairs
18 February 2025
Newspoll is changing the way it estimates how voters will direct their preferences
National affairs
29 November 2024
Do partisan voters really inhabit separate realities?
International
5 November 2024
After two presidential misfires in a row, the polls are under intense scrutiny ahead of tomorrow’s vote
National affairs
31 May 2024
One of Australia’s pollsters got very close to the actual result in 2022. Can they do it again?
National affairs
17 May 2024
All eyes will be on the next round of opinion polls. But it’s the ones that come later that count
National affairs
3 May 2024
The job of Liberal leader once swung from the party’s left to its right. But a lot has changed in recent years
Essays & reportage
12 March 2024
Is the Australian’s polling and commentary doing the opposition any favours?
National affairs
1 March 2024
It’s the interpretation rather than the result that will have real-world effects
National affairs
22 February 2024
It depends on how you ask the question
National affairs
4 December 2023
A panicky leader will only make matters worse for the government
National affairs
30 November 2023
With the next election still at least a year away, is the Coalition on the right kind of roll?
National affairs
13 October 2023
Different audiences will be watching for different messages during Saturday night’s referendum count
Essays & reportage
25 July 2023
How Newspoll reports public opinion and how the Australian reports Newspoll
National affairs
28 June 2023
Still polling strongly, the prime minister might be pondering his predecessors’ experiences after their first year in office
Essays & reportage
20 June 2023
Depending on the choices pollsters offer, the undecideds range all the way from none to two-thirds of respondents
National affairs
9 June 2023
Support for the Voice may not have dropped as much as the latest Newspoll suggests
National affairs
9 May 2023
The Australian Election Study is hamstrung by some worrying choices
International
3 April 2023
May’s local elections across England will be closely watched by parties and pollsters alike
National affairs
15 February 2023
There are good reasons to be sceptical about recent polling on the Voice referendum